Barring 2017 the state has a history of close contest between Congress and BJP
Thursday, 17 February 2022 | PNS | Dehradun
After polling on Monday, the fate of candidates in all 70 assembly constituencies of Uttarakhand is sealed in the EVMs which have been kept in the strong rooms under high security. With the counting of the votes scheduled on March 10, the candidates, parties and analysts are busy doing mathematical calculations and electoral permutation and combinations about the shape of possible assembly in the state. The leaders of both Congress and BJP are making claims that they would achieve landslide victory in the polls. However a look into the past data shows that barring 2017, there had been a very close contest between Congress and BJP. In fact there was very little difference between the vote share of BJP and Congress in the assembly elections of 2002, 2007 and 2012. This time in absence of any perceptible wave the experts are again predicting a close contest between the two parties in the assembly elections.
In the first assembly elections held in the year 2002 after creation of the state in the year 2000, the Congress party got 26.1 per cent of the popular votes and it was able to achieve the magic figure of 36 in the assembly of 70. The BJP was not much behind in terms of vote percentage as it received 25.45 per cent votes. However it could manage to win in only 21 seats. Though the difference in vote share of these parties was less than 1.5 per cent, there was a difference of 15 seats in both these parties. In this election the BSP cornered 10.93 per cent votes and won seven seats. The regional outfit UKD emerged victorious in four seats while independents and others got 16.30 per cent votes and four seats. In the elections of 2007, the BJP got 31.90 per cent vote share and it stopped just short of the majority figure by winning 34 seats. The Congress got 21 seats with a vote share of 29.59 per cent. The BSP increased its vote share to 11.76 per cent and won eight seats. The independents got 10.81 per cent vote and four seats while UKD got two seats. There was a very thin difference in the vote share and seats between Congress and BJP in the election of 2012. In this election Congress party got 33.79 per cent votes and it chipped in with 32 seats. The BJP was a shade behind with 33.13 per cent votes and 31 seats.
However this trend of close contest was shattered in the year 2017 where riding high on twin waves of anti incumbency and Modi the people of Uttarakhand gave BJP a landslide victory. The party won 57 seats and cornered a massive 46.51 per cent vote share while Congress could win only 11 seats with 33.49 per cent votes.
Senior journalist Jai Singh Rawat told The Pioneer that Uttarakhand is again headed for a close contest this time. “We are witnessing two waves which are negating each other’s effect. One is anti incumbency against BJP and other the Modi factor combined with the communal card played by the BJP in the last phase of elections,’’ he said.
