80K beds needed by then; presently no community transmission in national Capital
Delhi Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia on Tuesday said Delhi will need 80,000 beds as 5.5 lakh cases are expected by July 31, based on mathematical models analysed by several scientists.
Sounding a stark warning for troubles ahead, Sisodia said, “We presented the data of our prediction where we observed that by June 15, there’ll be 44,000 Covid-19 cases and 6,600 beds will be required. By June 30, we’ll reach one lakh cases and 15,000 beds will be required. By July 15, there’ll be 2.25 lakh cases and 33,000 beds will be required. By July 31, 5.5 lakh cases are expected and 80,000 beds will be required.”
Mathematics professor and researcher at the School of Natural Sciences at Shiv Nadar University Samit Bhattacharya said, “The model that I used for India found that there could be around 8-10 lakh cases in India by mid or end of July. So it won’t be surprising to get to those figures (5.5 lakh) in Delhi.”
Though scientists said community transmission of the disease may have started a while ago, the Centre said there is no community transmission of the virus in the national Capital.
After a meeting of the Delhi Disaster Management Authority, Sisodia quoted officials from the Centre as saying there is no community transmission of Covid-19 in Delhi.
Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain added in a separate conversation with the media that the source of infection is “not known” in nearly half the fresh cases.
Meanwhile, a Delhi Government panel has suggested using Pragati Maidan, Talkatora Indoor Stadium, Indira Gandhi Indoor Stadium and JLN Stadium as makeshift Covid-19 facility to deal with the surge in number of cases, an official said on Tuesday.
The official said the panel, constituted by Lieutenant Governor Anil Baijal, has also suggested using Thyagaraj Indoor Stadium and Dhyanchand National Stadium for the purpose.
According to health secretary of Delhi, the case of fatality rate in Delhi is 2.92 per cent as compared to the national average of 2.81 per cent, recovery rate is 38 per cent, doubling rate 12.6 days and test per million is 13,543 as compared to the national average of 3,531 tests per million.
Elaborating further how officials analysing the situation, Sisodia said, “The prediction is based on the trend that when the borders were sealed due to lockdown and in Delhi hospitals, only the residents of the State were coming for the treatments.”
Wednesday, 10 June 2020 | Sapna Singh | New Delhi